Q1 2026 Market Report · Year-Over-Year Analysis · Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Baja Real Estate
Q1 2026 Market Report · BHHS Baja Real Estate
Los Cabos Market Reports
Quarterly and annual market data for Los Cabos and Baja California Sur
Q1 2026 · Homes, Condos & Land
All percentage data compares Q1 2026 to Q1 2025. Volume figures are approximate.
Q1 2026 · All Zones
Q1 2026 · Closed sales across all zones
| Type | Cabo San Lucas | San Jose del Cabo | Pacific | East Cape | La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homes | $32.5M | $49.6M | $12.9M | $520K | $5.3M |
| Condos | $31.9M | $74.0M | $22.7M | $8.0M | $7.9M |
| Land | $2.0M | $7.0M | $8.0M | $3.7M | $4.4M |
| Total | $66.6M | $130.8M | $43.8M | $13.1M | $17.6M |
Active Inventory & Sales Metrics
Los Cabos Real Estate Market Report 2025
Year Over Year Report
Method note: Sold metrics are based on Q1 2026 closed sales in the Los Cabos zones provided. Months of supply is calculated from active listings divided by average monthly solds for the quarter. Coverage used: Cabo Corridor, Cabo San Lucas, San Jose Corridor, San Jose del Cabo, East Cape, and Pacific.
Sales Volume · All Regions
| Type | Cabo San Lucas | San Jose del Cabo | Pacific | East Cape | La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homes | $175.5M | $418.9M | $192.7M | $49.4M | $47.9M |
| Condos | $181.0M | $186.9M | $54.6M | $912.5K | $24.5M |
| Land | $17.9M | $105.9M | $30.4M | $15.6M | $22.4M |
| Total | $374.5M | $711.8M | $277.8M | $65.9M | $94.8M |
2024 vs 2025 · By Area & Type
Is Los Cabos a Buyer's Market Entering 2026?
The Los Cabos market entered 2026 with a recalibration that, on the surface, reads as contraction. Q1 volume fell 29.7% from Q1 2025, a sharp number that demands context. The prior year comparison period was exceptionally strong, and the underlying demand fundamentals have not shifted. Buyers remain active; the difference is their selectivity.
What I observe in the current market is a bifurcation that has been building for several quarters. Finished homes in amenity-rich communities continue to trade at or near list price when priced against actual sold comparables. Meanwhile, speculative land and preconstruction inventory in oversupplied submarkets is sitting longer and selling at increasing discounts.
The cash-market structure of Los Cabos insulates sellers from the financing pressures that typically trigger distressed selling. Most owners who purchased in the 2021-2023 window have already seen significant appreciation and have no urgency to exit. This keeps quality inventory constrained even as headline transaction counts soften.
For buyers entering now, the conditions are favorable in ways that were not available two years ago. Inventory is broader, sellers are more negotiable on timing and terms, and the fundamentals supporting long-term value remain intact: international demand, infrastructure investment in the corridor, constrained coastal land supply, and Los Cabos' position as the premier luxury real estate market in Mexico.
Over the past five years, more than $10 billion USD has been invested in the region. That investment does not reverse on a soft quarter. It compounds.
BHHS Baja Real Estate
Why Pricing & Positioning Matter in 2026
In a market with 21 to 44 months of home inventory depending on price tier, the gap between a quick close and an extended listing comes down almost entirely to pricing discipline and presentation.
Properties priced to current sold data, not the peak comparables from 2022 or the aspirational projections from a developer marketing brochure, are moving. The sale-to-list ratio on homes under $1M was 95.2% in Q1 2026. That is healthy. It tells you buyers are paying close to asking, which means sellers who price realistically are getting compensated fairly.
The mistake I see consistently is sellers anchoring to what comparable properties were listed at, rather than what they actually sold for. In a market with extended days on market and double the inventory from two years ago, the listed price is not the market. The sold price is.
Amenity-rich luxury communities continue to outperform when priced and presented correctly. Extended days on market almost always signal a pricing or positioning mismatch, not a lack of buyer interest. The demand is there. The buyers are informed and comparing real sold data, value per square foot, condition, and lifestyle offering. Strategy matters more than it has in years.
BHHS Baja Real Estate
Los Cabos Real Estate Market Report 2024
| Type | Units Sold | Total Volume | Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes | 552 | $727.3M | $1,317,494 |
| Condos | 673 | $429.6M | $638,261 |
| Land | 516 | $237.8M | $502,632 |
| Total | 1,854 | $1.42B | $768,554 |
The 2024 market closed with total sales of $1.42 billion across 1,854 properties, reflecting a 15.5% volume decline from 2023 while average sale prices rose 13% to $768,554. House prices appreciated 26% to a $1.32M average. San Jose del Cabo led all regions at $572.6M in total volume.
Los Cabos Real Estate Market Report 2023
| Type | Units Sold | Total Volume | Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes | 652 | $679.3M | ~$1,042,000 |
| Condos | 1,114 | $752.5M | ~$675,000 |
| Land | 659 | $230.6M | ~$350,000 |
| Total | 2,425 | $1.68B | $678,107 |
The 2023 Baja Sur market reached $1.68 billion in total sales across 2,425 closed properties, a 12% increase over 2022 and a record high for the region. Condos led by transaction volume at 1,114 units sold. Los Cabos proved its position as the most active luxury real estate market in Mexico, with demand driven by international buyers seeking proximity to the US, consistent climate, and a low-tax cash market.
Sold metrics are based on closed sales recorded within the Los Cabos and Baja California Sur zones. Months of supply is calculated from active listings divided by average monthly solds for the quarter. Coverage zones include: Cabo Corridor, Cabo San Lucas, San Jose Corridor, San Jose del Cabo, East Cape, Pacific, and La Paz. All figures are reported in USD. MXN equivalents are approximate based on the daily exchange rate published by BANXICO. Data sourced from AMPI / FlexMLS regional multiple listing service. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently reviewed and verified.
Frequently Asked Questions About Los Cabos Real Estate
How often is this market report updated?
This report is updated quarterly, with a full year-end edition published each January. The current edition covers Q1 2026 closed sales compared to Q1 2025, with the 2025 year-end analysis included for broader context.
What areas does this report cover?
The data covers the core Los Cabos market zones: Cabo San Lucas, Cabo Corridor, San Jose del Cabo, San Jose Corridor, Pacific, and East Cape. La Paz is included in the regional totals for reference, though our primary focus and brokerage activity is concentrated within the Los Cabos corridor.
Where does the data come from?
All figures are sourced from AMPI and the FlexMLS regional multiple listing service, which is the primary data source for closed transactions in Baja California Sur. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified.
Is Los Cabos currently a buyer's or seller's market?
It depends on the product and price tier. Finished homes in established communities priced to current sold comparables are moving at 95%+ of list price. Land and speculative inventory in oversupplied submarkets are sitting longer. The market is selective, not slow; the difference is in pricing discipline and product quality.
What is the average home price in Los Cabos?
In Q1 2026, the average sale price across all property types was $809,000 USD. For single-family homes specifically, the average was $1.17M. Prices vary significantly by zone, community, and property condition. The San Jose Corridor continues to command the highest average prices for homes.
What does months of inventory mean and why does it matter?
Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales. Under 6 months typically favors sellers. Over 12 months favors buyers. In Q1 2026, home inventory ranged from 21.8 months under $1M to 44.6 months over $1M, meaning supply is elevated relative to absorption, which is relevant context for both pricing strategy and negotiation.
Can foreigners buy property in Los Cabos?
Yes. US and Canadian citizens can purchase property in Los Cabos through a Fideicomiso, which is a Mexican bank trust that allows foreign nationals to hold title to coastal property within restricted zones. The trust is issued by a Mexican bank authorized by the government and functions similarly to direct ownership for all practical purposes.
What is a Fideicomiso and what does it cost?
A Fideicomiso is a bank trust that holds title to the property on behalf of the foreign buyer. The buyer retains all rights to use, rent, sell, or transfer the property. Setup costs typically range from $500 to $1,000 USD, with annual trust fees of approximately $500 to $700 USD depending on the bank. The trust is renewable and transferable.
How does the Los Cabos market compare to other luxury resort markets?
Los Cabos operates primarily as a cash market with low annual property taxes, no capital gains tax for primary residences held long term under certain conditions, and direct flight access from major US cities. Construction costs now range from $500 to $1,000+ per square foot for quality builds, which supports resale values on finished inventory. Over the past five years, more than $10 billion USD has been invested in the region — a scale of infrastructure commitment that is uncommon among comparable resort markets in Mexico or the Caribbean.
How do I discuss what this data means for my specific situation?
Every property position is different. Whether you are evaluating an entry point, tracking the value of an existing property, or preparing to sell, I am available for a data-grounded consultation specific to your price range, property type, and timeline. Use the contact form on this page to request a market assessment.